Will sanctions work against Russia? UNI political science professor explains | Politics


CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (KWWL) — Over the past month, sanctions talks have flooded the news following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The fact is that few people know what they really are.

Economic sanctions are more fundamentally a sanction in one form or another, which one country imposes on another to induce it either to stop a policy that it pursues, or to start something that it does not do. It can be against an entire country, like Russia, or it can be more specific like a company/organization, and even a specific person, like President Vladimir Putin.

Sanctions can also be seen as a wide range of sanctions, such as travel bans, arms embargoes, trade restrictions, and cuts in foreign aid. Ultimately, sanctions are used when a country like the United States feels it has exhausted diplomatic measures.

However, according to the political science professor Dr Brian Warby at the University of Northern Iowa, they are not always effective.

“Sanctions lead to some kind of behavioral change – a third of the time.”

And often the effects are felt beyond the person being punished.

“Whenever we impose sanctions, ordinary people tend to bear the brunt of the economic impact,” he said.

“Whether it’s government-imposed sanctions or big companies like McDonalds and many other companies pulling out of Russia, the logic is that we want the Russian people to pressure their own government to policy change,” Dr Warby said. added.

Yet the recent wave of sanctions has definitely changed some things for the better in terms of global politics.

“Putin has managed to do in two weeks what Europeans have not been able to do in 50 years, which is to bring Europe together – to adopt, to create a truly decisive and truly coherent foreign policy” , said Dr. Warby.

While most Americans are focused on record inflation in the states, the extent of the economic damage to Russia will take decades to recover.

“Although we are concerned, legitimately concerned, about 7-8% inflation, because it is economically damaging, Russia has seen inflation of about 80% in less than a month,” he said. -he declares.

The financial pressure on Putin increases thereafter, although not immediately.

“At some point – presumably he will start having problems being able to pay to run the war machine,” Dr Warby added.

Still, Dr Warby and his colleagues are unsure of the results, fearing financial instability could fuel Putin’s fear of a political downfall.

“It’s hard to see a situation where Putin reverses his policy and decides, ‘we came to invade Ukraine and take back Ukraine, but it’s too difficult so we’re going home.’ That would be Putin’s political end,” Dr Warby explained.

This means that the war in Ukraine may be far from over.

“The only course of action he has that doesn’t lead to his political downfall – and potentially the Russian people turn on him and carry it out, they have to go through with it, and just hope, for some miracle, that he will win the war,” Dr. Warby concluded.

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