Political Economy of Brazil – Modern Diplomacy



Americans voted in the midterm elections, which are traditionally seen as a crucial barometer for the man sitting in the White House, but which also have implications for Washington politics, both domestically and internationally. .

As the implications begin to play out, several different frameworks will play out. Either way, these midterm elections will take into account the growing discord and polarization of a country plagued by division and nervous breakdown as well as multiple foreign policy disasters.

Polls, before voters headed to the polls, suggested Republicans would have a successful night, but Democrats performed better than expected in some key races, defying what was generally expected to be a Republican sweep.

These midterms will also see how far former President Donald Trump can return to power as hundreds of candidates have received his public endorsement. In essence, he has already built up a loyal base of allies to promote a much-anticipated bid for the presidency in 2024.

Candidates and Trump’s fanbase are staunch election deniers, arguing that the 2020 presidential election was riddled with fraud and rigged in favor of Joe Biden, fears are setting the stage for chaos in 2024 .

Nevertheless, here is what the various scripts of these midterms could read for the future of Washington’s domestic and foreign policies.

While Democrats retain control of the Senate while Republicans take the House of Representatives, despite the rare bipartisan stance of both parties toward the war in Ukraine, reports from the United States suggest there is growing unease among Republicans towards Kyiv. Those same Republicans who could potentially sit in the House have voiced their opposition to the rising costs of aid being sent to Ukraine.

According to several US reports, developments and the crisis in Eastern Europe are not at the top of the agenda of the Republican Party candidates supported by Trump. It may mean less money and support for Kyiv.

As for other issues in West or East Asia, little positive change is expected from Washington’s indiscreet policy towards Iran, Syria, Iraq or China, for the Biden administration has demonstrated the same approach as its predecessor when it comes to America’s hegemonic aspirations. .

A Republican-controlled House will not care about climate change and should make a green agenda much more complicated, with Republicans able to more effectively appeal to their pro-coal and oil voters.

President Biden and his party may also face a series of investigations and may have a lot of answers to make from a Republican-controlled House.

This could include everything from the recent FBI raid on Trump’s Florida residence to the disastrous way the US military fled Afghanistan after a 20-year occupation that brought nothing but chaos, insecurity and increased terrorism. in the country. The Biden administration’s southern border and COVID policies will also be considered by the House.

On top of that, angry Republicans are likely to investigate Biden’s son, Hunter, for alleged tax evasion. That’s when the January 6, 2020 committee set up to investigate the Capitol Hill insurrection could be disbanded.

Some Republicans argue that Biden’s liberal border policies constitute “high crimes and misdemeanors,” which is eligible for impeachment. Just as Trump was impeached, there is a chance that a House Republican will try to impeach President Biden.

Although it seems a little unlikely, but if the Republicans take both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Biden will become a lame president. Issues such as Ukraine, China, Iran, and China, as noted earlier, would most certainly be implemented more forcefully and have a better chance of coming to fruition.

One of the main issues to consider in this scenario would be continued US backing and support for Ukraine. It would depend on the power granted to the Trump candidates who stand to the right of the Republican Party. The messages they delivered during the election campaign about US priorities will change the direction of Washington and have geopolitical implications.

The belief in Moscow is that little will change and that Russia is also not dependent on intermediaries to pursue what it describes as a “special military operation” in Ukraine. The Kremlin also doesn’t expect Washington’s support for Kyiv to drop significantly anytime soon.

Russian online news portal and TV channel, Tsargrad, said the election would ultimately lead to America’s doom. “At a critical moment in world history, this election could have a major impact on the geopolitical environment,” he wrote.

“It could also be the trigger for national centrifugal processes that could end the United States as we know it today,” he said, referring to the possibility of civil war due to the political polarization and distrust of election results.

“A Republican victory in the US Congressional elections will not lead to a revolution in US foreign policy and an end to Washington’s support for Ukraine,” Russian senator and foreign policy expert Alexei Pushkov said in a statement. social media post.

“However, the Biden administration will find it harder to push financial aid packages to Kyiv through Congress, and the position of US critics of unlimited aid to Ukraine will become markedly stronger.”

When it comes to climate change, the United States can essentially be left out of any international agenda to advance a greener planet.

Domestically, there will be filibusters and opposition to Biden’s foreign and domestic agenda with every bill the president attempts to introduce. Such is the polarization of the country, even issues where there was some degree of bipartisan cooperation in Biden’s first two years, such as gun control after the Uvalde school massacre and related issues. to infrastructure, will see Republicans block every move by Democrats. .

Should Democrats retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate? In addition to White House commitments to climate change, there are very strong and clear indications of a renewed commitment to continued military aid to Ukraine and the same policy of attempts to contain economic and military growth. from countries such as China, Iran and Russia. Essentially, it would be business as usual for President Biden’s administration.

Biden’s domestic agenda would move forward. The extent to which the policies could be carried out depends on the strength of the Democratic majority in the Senate. If the party manages to expand its majority, it might be able to remove the filibuster. It’s the mechanism that requires legislation to get 60 votes to pass and that has thwarted Biden’s attempts to push legislation through.

Prior to the election, President Biden’s Democratic Party controlled both houses of Congress, but with very narrow margins. In the Senate, a 50-50 split meant that a casting vote went to Vice President Kamala Harris.

This does not take away from the fears of political subversion and violence around these elections, which very much depend on the reaction of voters to the result in the days, weeks and months to come. A concern that was expressed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Things could get complicated if candidates who support the idea that the country’s political system is rigged by fraud are not selected for power.

Either way, Biden’s popularity is historically low while his age is historically high. A poll by NBC found that most people think the president’s policies are hurting the country and its finances.

The results of the midterm elections may be disputed, and the possibility remains that the American political system will face further turbulence and crises in the years to come.

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