Chilean political stability: 6-month outlook

0

[ad_1]

Since 2019, Chileans have periodically taken to the streets and protested against a myriad of government policies. Chileans recently elected Gabriel Boric by a narrow margin, but rejected his proposed constitutional amendments in a referendum in September. Meanwhile, the Chilean economy is taking a difficult path to recover from the pandemic, which is further aggravating discontent in the country.

This content is restricted to secret and top secret clearance holders

Please sign up for secret clearance or top secret clearance to unlock this content.

KJ-1: There is a realistic probability that the Chilean government will enact constitutional reforms within the next 6 months.

  • President Boric has proposed a constitutional referendum as a way to resolve the country’s endemic political polarization and social discontent Grey Dynamics.
  • Lack of political experience and technical knowledge among Constituent Assembly members contributed to unpopular draft constitution Grey Dynamics.
  • Opposition lawmakers are backing a new draft and President Boric has held several meetings in a bid to relaunch the process Grey Dynamics.
  • Boric reorganized his cabinet after losing the vote to broaden the scope of coalition participation Grey Dynamics.
  • Support for a new constitution looms large among Chilean voters who dislike the Pinochet-era document currently in place Grey Dynamics.
  • The United Nations Regional Human Rights Office for South America is helping the government draft the new document Grey Dynamics.
  • Under the UNHRROSA assistance programme, the UN organizes seminars and public hearings aimed at facilitating greater stakeholder participation in the process. Grey Dynamics.

KJ-2: The Chilean economy is likely to perform badly over the next 6 months.

  • So far, foreign direct investment in Chile has exceeded the 5-year average, however, the inflow fell by 14% in the first half of the year. Grey Dynamics.
  • Overall, it seems that FDI is decreasing in the second half of 2022 Grey Dynamics.
  • The slowdown in FDI is linked to the uncertainty surrounding the constitutional process Grey Dynamics.
  • The Central Bank of Chile forecasts an overall drop in FDI of 3.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023 Grey Dynamics.
  • The Chilean economy will grow slightly by the end of 2022, but is expected to contract by no more than 1.5% in 2023 Grey Dynamics.
  • The government is trying to alleviate the grim situation with tax breaks for foreign companies, especially those involved in mining Grey Dynamics.
  • The price of industrial metals fell by 17%. Copper fell 6% to $7,560 a tonne Grey Dynamics. Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper, with an average of more than 28% of world production Grey Dynamics.
  • The fall in the price of industrial metals coincided with a slowdown in manufacturing growth in China and still high global energy prices Grey Dynamics.
  • China recorded lower GDP growth than the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990, impacting dependent economies such as Chile Grey Dynamics.

KJ-3: It is likely that Chile will continue to experience widespread protests over the next 6 months.

  • The Piñera government cracked down on protesters in 2019, leading to widespread abuses by security forces Grey Dynamics.
  • Chilean police fired rubber bullets into the crowd, causing eye injuries. Eye patches have become a symbol of the protest movement Grey Dynamics.
  • Unrest in Chile has led to the highest number of recorded eye trauma cases in the world Grey Dynamics.
  • Following the loss of the constitutional vote, students took to the streets and closed several metro stations Grey Dynamics.
  • The students also demanded far-reaching social reforms to tackle growing levels of inequality in Chile as well as education reforms. Grey Dynamics.
  • The new constitution was intended to address land and water rights for Chilean citizens and address the widespread abuse of Chile’s water supply by agricultural companies. Grey Dynamics.
  • The need for comprehensive environmental reforms became evident when the two main rivers in the Petorca region dried up Grey Dynamics.
  • Lake Aculeo completely dried up in 2018 following siphoning for water-intensive agricultural projects Grey Dynamics.
  • The situation has become so desperate that emergency tankers are delivering water to communities across the country. Grey Dynamics.
  • The run-up to the referendum has been full of misinformation, such as the claim that the new constitution would ban bottled water, highlighting the central role water plays in the decision-making process for many people in Chile. Grey Dynamics.

Information deadline September 29

[ad_2]
Source link

Share.

Comments are closed.